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Traditional, orthodox Roman Catholic believers ought to be extremely grateful that American Catholics do not vote on Catholic doctrine, moral teaching, and ecclesiology. Because if they did, and if they got their way, much of the historic Roman Catholic Church would be swept away into the dustbin of history. This conclusion screams from the pages of a recent Pew Research Center survey report, “Most U.S. Catholics Say They Want the Church To Be ‘More Inclusive.’” Pew conducted the survey from February 3 through 9 with “1,787 Catholic respondents.”

Few of us would be surprised by one of the report’s major findings, namely that “there are large divides between Catholics who attend Mass weekly and those who don’t.” That is, the latter are astronomically more liberal. Nor would we be surprised that Catholic Democrats are far more liberal than Republican ones (Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi versus J.D. Vance, anyone?).

Some might not have expected that Catholic women are more liberal than Catholic men, though this sex difference is something we see in national politics as well. Here, women were more progressive in the following areas: whether the Church should be more “inclusive,” the use of birth control, blessings for same-sex couples (66 percent, versus 54 percent for men), marriage for same-sex couples (55 percent, versus 45 percent for men), and allowing women to be deacons.

Unfortunately, Pew did not explore the impact of marital status on women’s stances. My guess is that this would show that marital status, along with having or not having children, would matter a lot—with married women, especially those with children, being more conservative, as they are politically. We can infer this by the above-mentioned finding regarding the doctrinal differences between Catholic Democrats and Republicans, since single women are far more likely to vote Democrat.

Age mattered, but in surprising ways. Respondents who were 18 to 34 were often more conservative, in some cases by very hefty margins, than those ages 65 and older. This was true on the ordination of women as priests and deacons, whether priests should be allowed to marry, Communion for cohabiting Catholics, the use of IVF, and wanting the Church to be more “inclusive.” (I ignored findings where differences were only a few or less percentage points.)

I could only find one area where younger respondents were more liberal to any significant degree, but it was an important one. Those 18 to 34 were more likely than those 65 and older to support marriage for same-sex couples (55 versus 49 percent).

Hispanics were more conservative than white non-Hispanics in some areas. These included whether the Church should be more inclusive, the use of IVF, Communion of the cohabiting, allowing women to be deacons or priests, and allowing priests to marry.

As for trends over time, some Pew findings showed only slight changes between 2013, 2014 or 2015, and now. One exception was support for using birth control, which rose from 76 to 84 percent between 2013 and 2025, a shift of eight percent. Even this is not an astronomical change, though the percentage here is hitting close to a ceiling. Another was support for giving Communion to cohabiting Catholics, which rose from 61 percent to a whopping 76 percent between 2015 and 2025, a 15-point shift.

But by far the biggest demographic finding of this report had to do with the differences between Catholics who attend Mass weekly or more and those who do not. This would be better news for observant Catholics if not for other facts. First, as Pew also reported in 2024, only 29 percent of U.S. Catholics attend Mass at least weekly. This is less than a third. Second, Catholics who do go to church as least weekly are still pretty darn progressive about many major Church teachings. Allow me to detail just how liberal weekly church attending Catholics really are, again noting that they are clearly much more conservative than Catholics who attend church less often.

Over 70 percent of weekly church attenders support Catholics using birth control or IVF. Fifty-nine percent are OK with cohabiting people receiving Communion. Another 54 percent want female deacons. Forty-nine percent believe that the Catholic Church should allow priests to get married, versus 48 percent opposing this. This is a fifty-fifty split.

Even where the majority of weekly church attenders do not take more progressive positions vis-à-vis Church teaching, the percentages in favor of the latter are still pretty hefty. Forty-six percent want priests to bless same-sex unions (almost half of weekly church attenders want the Church to bless sin?), while 31 percent want full Church recognition of the same. Forty-one percent want female priests (priestesses?).

One interesting survey item mentioned above asked if the Church should “be more inclusive, even if that means changing some of its teachings,” versus saying that it should “stick to its traditional teachings, even if that means the church gets smaller.” Forty-two percent of weekly church attenders chose the former option (compared to 58 percent who attend only once or twice a month and 69 percent of those who attend church even less often).

Read the Whole Article

The post Liberalism in the Pews appeared first on LewRockwell.

Perhaps Putin should tell the Russian people and the Russian Army that his interest in resolving the conflict in Ukraine with peace negotiations lies in the possibility that the negotiations could be used to achieve a Great Power Agreement like what he and Lavrov tried to achieve with the West during the winter of 2021-2022 prior to Russia’s forced intervention in Ukraine. A New Yalta in effect.  

Russian foreign affairs commentators have been speaking for some time about the need for a new Yalta agreement.  A few years ago I was asked to address the Russian Academy of Sciences on the subject.  I told them something that they did not want to hear:  that Washington’s claim to hegemony prevented accommodation to Russian sovereignty.

A few thinking people have been perplexed at Putin’s conduct of the conflict in Ukraine. Russia could have ended the war quickly with conquest, but  instead has fought a slow, restrained war that has greatly expanded the war with Putin and Lavrov bleating constantly for “peace negotiations.”

Why has Putin done this despite the protests of the Wagner Group and the Chechnya leader of the Muslim troops fighting in the Ukraine conflict?  The only answer seems to be that he wants a New Yalta Agreement.  If he wins the war, he loses the opportunity. So he drags out the war in the hopes that negotiations will provide a platform for addressing the “root cause of the conflict”–which he sees as the absence of a Great Power Agreement.

One problem Putin’s wishful strategy faces is Washington’s commitment to hegemony.  No American president has repudiated the Wolfowitz Doctrine. Another is that the absence of victory goes down poorly with the Russian nationalists and with the troops themselves.  There are news reports that Russians are suspicious  and resentful of peace negotiations in Ukraine that stop short of victory. 

Russian soldiers doing the fighting have told media that as tired as they are and as much as they want to go home, they want to liberate all of the regions that are once again part of Russia so that they don’t have to renew the fight in the future.  As one of the soldiers asked, “Otherwise, have all the guys died in vain?”

Russia’s rescue of the Russian territories assigned to Ukraine by Soviet leaders is important to Putin, but more important is to secure a Great Power Agreement, a New Yalta, that accepts Russia as a member county free of sanctions, overthrow attempts, and conflicts.

Putin is so desirous of this agreement that he has risked the ever-widening of the Ukraine conflict to the point that drone attacks now close all Moscow airports and destroy energy infrastructure deep inside Russia.  When Putin says that peace negotiations must address the “root cause of the conflict,” he means the absence of a Great Power Agreement.  

Putin is not interested in a negotiated end to the conflict in Ukraine.  He is hopeful of using negotiation to achieve a New Yalta.  The problem that Putin faces is that Washington, wrapped up as it is in its assumed hegemony, has no comprehension of another country’s point of view. 

Washington’s approach to all negotiations is to use threats, to look for levers of pressure to force other governments to accept Washington’s “solution” to the “problem,” usually a Washington creation.  In other words, Washington doesn’t really negotiate.  It imposes its solutions.

Trump expects the Ukrainian negotiations to fail, and has ensured as much, in order to be able to withdraw money and focus from Ukraine and use the resources to bring into operation Trump’s goal of an American Middle East colonial empire which began with Trump’s claim of Gaza as an American possession. This claim is a claim to the undersea gas reserves that run from Gaza’s border with Egypt to northern Syria.  Trump’s visit in Saudi Arabia, the last remaining Arab state, was to enlist the rulers as junior partners in Trump’s American Middle East colonial empire. It seems that with Trump’s domestic agenda blocked by the judiciary, Trump will make us great again with the rise of America’s Middle East Empire.

The post How America Is Being Made Great Again appeared first on LewRockwell.

Dr. Mark Thornton ‪@misesmedia‬ discusses the economic implications of the historically high gold-silver ratio, suggesting it may signal an impending recession. He explains that central bank gold purchases are driving its price higher relative to silver, reflecting deeper market imbalances. Dr. Thornton emphasizes the importance of historical data and Austrian economic principles in forecasting and understanding crises. He warns that the U.S. national debt and current monetary policies could lead to hyperinflation and require drastic interest rate cuts. Lastly, he stresses the need for practical financial education, as government responses are failing to address core economic problems, leaving markets vulnerable to heightened volatility.

Comments open on YouTube

The post Gold/Silver Ratio Signaling Rapid Reversal & Recession Coming appeared first on LewRockwell.

America – the greatest nation on earth – is currently facing unprecedented times of social unrest, and dare I say, this is just the beginning.

Regardless of who presides over the nation, we should always be aware of the so-called “shadow government” and their agenda. And mark my words: Our nation is in for times of massive unrest that were being plotted as early as 2015 and will continue until the “global agenda” pursued by George Soros and his allies is implemented.  The coming out-of-control riots may lead to a call for Martial Law, as I will explain.

America has been preparing for massive social uprisings for a very long time (a quick research on the topic will reveal this truth). What I am about to tell you next might come as a surprise for some of you, but most of the things that we experience are being manufactured.

1. The leaked U.S. Army Military Police training manual for “Civil Disturbance Operations” outlines how military assets will be utilized domestically to quell riots, confiscate firearms, and even kill American on U.S. soil if need if need be during mass civil unrest.
2. Department of Defense launched the Minerva Research Initiative – an integral program that aims to analyze and predict social behavior by authorizing “Intelligent Networks” to snoop on every citizen’s private social media interaction. The Pentagon’s secret pre-crime program to know your thoughts and predict your future. Be careful what you are sharing or saying on social media platforms.
3. 2015: Jade Helm 15 – Realistic Military Training (RMT) was a joint realistic military and inter-agency unconventional warfare exercise. This has been the first-ever military exercise held on federal soil to prepare our troops and law enforcers in case of invasions or uncontrolled civil uprisings. A quick look over the map of the exercise might lead us to the idea that “the federal government is intentionally practicing war against its own states” (Knowles, 2015).
4. The latest massive social uprising America has faced for more than more years in a row is another fabricated movement. It is being claimed that once again Soros is the mastermind behind the demonstrations.

Never in my lifetime have I seen America so divided.

Our politicians and the mainstream media have been endlessly pitting various groups against one another for years, and everywhere you look, hearts are growing very cold. And this is when the “fun” begins. Trump’s victory has come as a surprise for many, but if we consider the new state of play of the world, where the economic crisis has led to global divisions driving, thus, a return to national interests over the global ones, voting for Trump has been the obvious choice.

During difficult times, we must safeguard the values and interests of the American people. But manufacturing nation-wide protests during confusing times may be just what some might wish for in order to divide and destabilize the country in exchange for the ability to control us at all the times. In case we don’t comply with their “desires” we will face dire consequences, as the infamous Zbigniew Brzezinski, the imperialist/globalist/war-monger and former policy advisor to Obama, said: “Today, it is infinitely easier to kill a million people than to control a million people”.

After some extensive research on the matter, I am inclined to affirm that what we’re currently experiencing is just the beginning, and the protests are rapidly turning into violent riots. Although many commentators are claiming that martial law will not be declared, we can never be sure of what is being planned for us.

Eliminate Your Right to a Speedy Trial

Even in Martial Law, you will be tried for crimes. Now, what you consider to be a CRIME might change drastically, however you will be tried. You will not be tried by a jury of your peers. Instead, the military will become judge, jury, and jailor.

As scary as that sounds you will still have a trial to decide your fate. This is not a guarantee but there is legal precedent that your 6th Amendment will be upheld. While President Lincoln suspended Habeas Corpus during the Civil war, Lambdon P. Milligan fought his military tribunal sentencing and the Supreme court ruled in his favor.

In 1866 the Supreme court ruled there could be no military trials for US citizens.

So, here’s a glimpse of how life will be when martial law comes into effect:

• Everything we own can become federal property (especially guns and food stockpiles, which will be the first to be confiscated).
• Curfews will be the new normal, while groups of armed men and women will patrol the streets at all times.
• Access to food, water and other resources will be rationed. If your life depends on a daily dose of medication, you should start storing it in advance.
• There will be sky-high inflation, and with a national debt of almost $20 trillion, the stage is set to sky-rocket a new financial crisis that will make the 1930s Depression look like a walk in the park.
• Everyone will be considered suspicious. A short chit-chat with your neighbor about the “wrong” things can put your life on the line.
• There will be no access to free Internet, while free press and the freedom of speech will be things of the past

The 6 Golden Rules of Surviving Martial Law

Prepper or no prepper, these are the 6 Golden Rules to follow if martial law comes to your town:

1. First and foremost, talk with no one and trust no one.

Although the clear majority of preppers are already set to outlast any scenario that cuts them off from all the common supply lines, we must remember that under martial Law, everything that we own is able to become government property. Therefore, do not tell people about your supplies or secret hide-outs. I know it’s hard not to brag about your preps, but be careful to whom you’re talking

2. Always renew your supplies and make sure you have a “basic martial law survival kit.”

A basic martial law survival kit would imply the following: electricity generator, water filters or even water generators (H2O Dynamo), weapons, food supplies for six months, first aid supplies, clothing for any type of weather, a flashlight, batteries, radio gear, and navigation equipment. Of course, you’ll need these if you want to stay put. If you want to go outside and face the music…that’s a different story.

3. Avoid getting in the way of law enforcement or the military.

Even though some would advise that we be resilient to any violations of your constitutional rights, which, by the way, will be justified under martial law, the best survival tactics are to keep your cool and think before you react. You can always choose to fight back. These two options – bugging in or bugging out – will cause you to probably face the hardest decision of your life.

4. Tune in and be up to date with the news.

It is crucial to stay informed and keep in touch with whomever you consider important. Every media outlet, as well as the Internet, will be controlled by the federal government, and you will not have access to any other information except what is being communicated by the state. Although this might be upsetting, you still need to know what is going to happen so you can be prepared for any situation.

5. Cautiously develop a survival network.

Establishing a survival network would be an excellent idea considering the fact that we can never know for how long martial law will be imposed. Consequently, setting up a diverse group of preppers will ensure your long-term survival. But make sure you keep a low profile so that you and your group will not be targeted as perpetrators.

6. Inspect and know your surroundings by heart.

You should be able to visualize your home turf even in your sleep. Ideally, you would also have a safe room. Make sure you have a blueprint of your area where you mark the closest escape routes, develop the quickest itinerary to a safe haven, and formulate the best and safest evacuation strategy.

Nationwide Martial Law

Despite the fantasy of a nationwide Martial Law, the resources do not exist to lockdown every American city. In fact, we couldn’t lockdown the major cities all at the same time. We are talking about tens of millions of people.

However, we could very well see sections of Boston, NYC, and Detroit, among others, face a Martial Law type presence.

I hope you have connected the dots while reading this article. Many of these “Emergency Acts” that have been enacted at the state and federal level have already stolen your liberty in writing. The government has built a framework for Martial Law and in some cities the violence has already started. Not to mention we have willingly walked into a world of censorship.

Pay close attention to positioning. The American military is great at positioning and I have to believe that much of what is happening in our nation is about positioning resource to cut down civil unrest due to this lockdown and, God forbid, successional lockdowns to come.

The fact is, we have given up tremendous amounts of power. Those who rule over us are fully prepared to send in the shock troops, if need be. It is time for America to be smart and get people back to work, safely. It’s time to isolate at risk populations.

Otherwise we will see Martial Law in cities across this nation and now you know what we stand to lose.

This article was originally published on MadgeWaggy.blogspot.com.

The post Millions Will Leave the U.S. To Survive When Martial Law Will Be Declared appeared first on LewRockwell.

Hawaiian Governor Josh Green is scheduled to serve as minority witness for Democrat members of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee.

The Committee is holding a hearing today titled The Corruption of Science and Federal Health Agencies: How Health Officials Downplayed and Hid Myocarditis and Other Adverse Events Associated with the COVID-19 Vaccines.

My brother and his family have lived on Maui for 25 years, and I have lived on the island for a total of three years. During the years 2020-2023, I frequently spoke with my brother and other island residents, including Ed Dowd, about the COVID-19 situation on the island.

I first became interested in the background and profile of Hawaiian Governor Josh Green when Lahaina was incinerated on August 8, 2023. The disaster—about which I have been researching a book for the last two years—was emblematic of catastrophic mismanagement in terms of both prevention and emergency response.

An eerily similar fire struck Lahaina in on August 24, 2018 that came very close to penetrating the old town center. A review of the incident yielded an action list of measures that needed to be done to prevent total disaster from striking the historic town in the future. Of critical importance were bolstering power lines and poles and clearing desiccated vegetation from the hillside about Lahaina. None of these measures were taken.

Josh Green was elected lieutenant governor of Hawaii in November 2018 and was serving in this office during the COVID-19 pandemic. His previous career as a family doctor and ER physician at rural hospitals on the Big Island made him an obvious candidate to lead the state’s COVID-19 pandemic response.

Lt. Governor Green’s response was typical of Democrat Party administered states in its vigorous advocacy of lockdowns and masking, and equally rigorous suppression of early treatment modalities.

Especially stupid was his decision to close Hawaii’s beaches, which were certainly the best place for people to be—getting lots of sunshine and fresh air—after the virus began circulating in the islands.

The Hawaiian islands have a resident population of 1,455,274. The largest urban centers are Honolulu, with a resident population of 337,338. Outside of Honolulu, most of Hawaii’s residents live in relatively small towns and suburbs.

The lieutenant governor was widely praised in the media for his quick decision to close nonessential travel to the islands, which achieved nothing apart from demolishing the local economy.

In spite of travel restrictions, the contagion still—by official accounts—arrived in the islands around March 17, 2020.

The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Hawaii began with great fanfare on December 15, 2020, with healthcare workers at the Queen’s Medical Center in Honolulu receiving the first shots that prevented neither infection nor transmission.

With Lt. Governor Green and the local media erroneously proclaiming that vaccination would stop the spread and allow the state to go back to normal, the vaccine was rolled out out in two phases.

The first phase—rolled out in the winter and spring of 2021— was for healthcare workers and other cohorts deemed at higher risk of grave illness. The second phase—rolled out in the summer of 2021—was for all other persons 16 years and older.

Despite widespread vaccine coverage by the autumn of 2021, by far the biggest spike of hospitalizations and deaths in the islands occurred in December 2021.

An informal survey of my brother’s large circle of friends revealed that most of those who’d gotten vaccinated nevertheless fell ill during the winter of 2021-22 spike. Within his own family on the island, the one adult who received the shot was the first to fall ill and also suffered the most severe symptoms.

Since he was elected Governor of Hawaii, Josh Green has frequently proclaimed his commitment to “green” or “renewable” energy—as though reducing the “carbon footprint” of the islands’ 1.4 million inhabitants is going to affect the climate of planet earth.

Note that the Hawaiian islands feature some of the most active volcanoes on earth—Kīlauea, Maunaloa, Maunakea, Hualālai, and Kohala—which release thousands of tons per day of water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). During a major eruption, Kīlauea emits between 30,000–40,000 tons per day of these gasses.

It requires a special kind of dedicated obtuseness and ideological intoxication to claim that humans living on active volcanic islands need to erect windmills and drive electric cars to reduce their CO2 emissions.

This article was originally published on Courageous Discourse.

The post Hawaii Gov. Josh Green, Minority Witness appeared first on LewRockwell.

The Trump administration is a revolutionary, transformative presidency. It seeks to restore the American republic to its original constitutional status as the guardian of rights and liberties by forcefully challenging the despotic tyranny and regimentation of the governing elites composing the regulatory captured bureaucratic administrative state and its corrupt crony enablers, particularly in Big Pharma, the warmongers of the military industrial complex, and the invasive surveillance/intelligence deep state at the core of this infamy. Along with Vice President J. D, Vance, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Assistant Attorney General for Civil Rights at the U.S. Department of Justice Harmeet Dillion fully understands her crucial role in confronting and eviscerating the deep state and its institutional actors and covert appendages. This long-standing, pervasive, insidious corruption demands the commanding attention she is providing in rooting it out root and branch.

The National Security Deep State, driven by the imperial presidency, an acquiescent congress and a complacent federal judiciary, has destroyed the American Republic. Their egregious welfare-warfare state, enabled by the Fed, fosters and promotes the profligacy and dependency which is at the root of this destructive process. Because of its clandestine nature and covert linkages to organized crime syndicates worldwide, ruthlessness, assassinations, regime change, drug and human trafficking, extortion and racketeering, money laundering, cyber-crime, and corruption are not aberrations or breakdowns of the deep state, but absolutely endemic to it.

The post Tucker Carlson – Harmeet Dhillon’s War on the Discrimination Against White Christians and DOJ Corruption appeared first on LewRockwell.

Jesse Trentadue wrote:

We may have hit critical mass.  This appeared on the internet this morning out of nowhere.

The post The Forgotten Victim of the OKC Bombing? The Shocking Death of Kenneth Trentadue appeared first on LewRockwell.

Thanks, John Smith. 

The Guardian

The post If you were shocked by my film on Israeli settlers in the West Bank, you haven’t been paying attention appeared first on LewRockwell.

Thanks, John Smith. 

The post Videos of malnourished children show Gaza’s forced starvation crisis appeared first on LewRockwell.

Thanks, John Smith. 

Bloomberg

The post US-China Tensions Over Chips Risk Hurting Trade Truce, Dialogue appeared first on LewRockwell.

David Martin wrote:

What’s really interesting here is how much important U.S. foreign policy news there is in it that seems to be almost completely blacked out from the U.S. news media, whether one follows the liberal mainstream or their conservative counterparts.  And to add my further analysis to what these astute observers have to say, what strikes me about Trump’s foreign policy is, rhetoric aside, how consistent it is with that of all his predecessors, Democratic or Republican.  It’s still “Bombs and Propaganda,” whether we’re dropping them or someone else is dropping our bombs.  Bombs and Propaganda. See also this.

The post Phone Call Fallout; What’s Up With Trump? appeared first on LewRockwell.

Thanks, John Smith. 

Reason

The post Military tests gave radiation poisoning to San Franciscans appeared first on LewRockwell.

Thanks, John Smith. 

Haaretz.com

The post On Israeli TV, Starving Gazan Babies Aren’t a Problem. As Long as There Are No Photos of Them appeared first on LewRockwell.

Thanks, John Smith. 

The post “Special report: Gaza’s children starve as Israel withholds all food supplies appeared first on LewRockwell.

Writes Jerome Barber:

A great article by Dr. Clyde Wilson.  I really like his statement about loving our people and the land.

Too many modern Christians have made an idol of the U.S. government.

And that my friends, is a real problem.

See here.

The post Christian Nationalism appeared first on LewRockwell.

Il manoscritto fornisce un grimaldello al lettore, una chiave di lettura semplificata, del mondo finanziario e non che sembra essere andato "fuori controllo" negli ultimi quattro anni in particolare. Questa è una storia di cartelli, a livello sovrastatale e sovranazionale, la cui pianificazione centrale ha raggiunto un punto in cui deve essere riformata radicalmente e questa riforma radicale non può avvenire senza una dose di dolore economico che potrebbe mettere a repentaglio la loro autorità. Da qui la risposta al Grande Default attraverso il Grande Reset. Questa è la storia di un coyote, che quando non riesce a sfamarsi all'esterno ricorre all'autofagocitazione. Lo stesso è accaduto ai membri del G7, dove i sei membri restanti hanno iniziato a fagocitare il settimo: gli Stati Uniti.

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(Versione audio della traduzione disponibile qui: https://open.substack.com/pub/fsimoncelli/p/quando-i-keynesiani-prevedono-un)

Mi emoziono sempre per una correzione di mercato quando leggo che il consenso keynesiano prevede un disastro. Le stesse persone che sostenevano che la stampa di moneta sfrenata e l'impennata della spesa pubblica non avrebbero causato inflazione, sono quelle che sanno esattamente come i dazi influenzeranno i prezzi aggregati. Davvero affascinante.

Nel giugno 2016 sedici premi Nobel si aspettavano un'inflazione più elevata a causa dei dazi, ma questo non si è mai verificato. Inoltre molti di quegli economisti hanno raccomandato un'enorme spesa pubblica e un allentamento quantitativo alla Federal Reserve nel 2020, affermando che non vi erano preoccupazioni per l'inflazione. Tuttavia ciò ha portato alla più alta esplosione inflazionistica degli ultimi trent'anni. La realtà ha dimostrato che non c'è stata inflazione nel periodo 2016-2019 e che la folle ondata di stampa e spesa del 2021 ha portato all'attuale esplosione inflazionistica. Questo accade perché molti esperti giustificheranno sempre tutti gli squilibri governativi e gli aumenti delle tasse, ma lanceranno l'allarme per qualsiasi taglio fiscale o misura dal lato dell'offerta. Non dovremmo mai fidarci di esperti che lavorano a stretto contatto con i governi socialdemocratici.

Secondo i seminatori di panico, i dazi creeranno un'enorme esplosione dell'inflazione sia negli Stati Uniti che all'estero. Queste stime mostrano che i dazi di Trump saranno pagati dai consumatori statunitensi, così come i dazi cinesi contro gli Stati Uniti, e le contromisure dell'UE saranno pagate solo dai consumatori americani. Davvero divertente. Se credessimo a questa narrazione, i dazi sarebbero la migliore notizia per le aziende di tutto il mondo: gli americani ne ingoierebbero completamente i costi, i margini non diminuirebbero e il mondo ne sarebbe felice. Sarebbe oltremodo ridicolo se milioni di persone prendessero sul serio le loro parole. Inoltre, secondo la narrazione prevalente, i dazi causerebbero una recessione globale se imposti dagli Stati Uniti. Tuttavia quando i dazi vengono imposti dalla Cina o dall'UE, allora va tutto bene.

Quando i keynesiani prevedono un disastro, è improbabile che accada. Quando il consenso keynesiano vi dice che non c'è rischio, come nel 2008, scappate.

Dovremmo prendere in considerazione alcuni fattori rilevanti. I mercati già scontano una recessione e un rischio di stagflazione, ma l'ultima relazione sull'occupazione mostra il contrario. A marzo sono stati creati 228.000 posti di lavoro, nonostante alcuni siano stati creati nel settore pubblico. L'indice composito ISM indica un'espansione e il dato ponderato economicamente è ampiamente al di sopra del livello di espansione (50) secondo Real Investment Advice. Tutti gli indicatori principali di investimento e produzione sono ben lontani da un segnale di recessione. Inoltre molti operatori di mercato sembrano scontare una Federal Reserve aggressiva e una recessione, cosa che non accadeva da due decenni.

Ciò che trovo interessante è che, per la prima volta da molti anni, l'indice S&P 500 abbia un prezzo interessante. Dopo essere stato estremamente costoso in un mercato rialzista con una costante espansione dei multipli, possiamo finalmente affermare che sta iniziando a essere interessante, anche scontando una significativa revisione al ribasso degli utili. Il rapporto prezzo/utili di 15,2X per il 2027 offre ampio margine di revisione e mostra ancora un punto di ingresso interessante. Le azioni sono piuttosto convenienti, con un EV/EBITDA di 10,3X al 2027 (valore d'impresa/utile al lordo di interessi, imposte, deprezzamento e ammortamento). Inoltre, con il rendimento dei titoli del Tesoro a 10 anni al 4%, significa che per la prima volta da mesi le azioni sono interessanti rispetto alle obbligazioni. I margini sono solidi, le previsioni sono positive e i punti di ingresso per gli investitori a lungo termine stanno iniziando a essere evidenti, poiché è probabile che le pressioni inflazionistiche saranno limitate e la cosiddetta guerra commerciale finirà con dei negoziati, con oltre 50 nazioni che chiedono al governo degli Stati Uniti di raggiungere un accordo sulle barriere commerciali.

Qualsiasi investitore a lungo termine dovrebbe valutare opportunità in cui la paura è esagerata, le valutazioni sono interessanti e le preoccupazioni del consenso sono irrealistiche. Potrebbe essere una buona idea iniziare ad aprire posizioni lunghe, sapendo che a un quantitative easing e a tagli dei tassi seguiranno probabilmente periodi di volatilità.

Gli investitori devono proteggersi dall'inflazione e dalla distruzione del potere d'acquisto della valuta da parte delle banche centrali. Questo fenomeno non è scomparso; sta ritornando, mentre gli stati di tutto il mondo continuano ad accumulare debito e squilibri fiscali. Proteggetevi dall'inflazione con una strategia bilanciata, costruendo posizioni che proteggano il vostro patrimonio e vi aiutino a gestire la volatilità.

[*] traduzione di Francesco Simoncelli: https://www.francescosimoncelli.com/

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Writes Saleh Abdullah:

World Council Health

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 Thanks, Saleh Abdullah. 

TNR News

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Thanks, Saleh Abdullah. 

See here.

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Thanks,  Saleh Abdullah. 

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