This is a battle. Let us not underestimate the resolve and cunning of the enemy. While I despise these people I do respect what they have been able to do on a global scale without firing a shot for the most part. War has only been a tool to move history along to meet their ultimate objective: Global Government and Total Control. The observable outcomes tell the real story.

The genius, cunning, subterfuge and deception are almost more than I can wrap my mind around.

Jerome

Sun Tzu:

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.

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The Ism Which Teaches that Waste Makes Wealth

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 16:42

The great William Graham Sumner on Protectionism.

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Sacrificing Truth on Leviathan’s Altar

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

Last Sunday, 60 Minutes featured tyrannical German prosecutors boasting about persecuting private citizens who made comments that officialdom disapproved. Three prosecutors explained how the government was entitled to launch pre-dawn raids and lock up individuals who criticized politicians, complained about immigrant crime waves, or otherwise crossed the latest revised boundary lines of acceptable thoughts.

In a craven slant that would have cheered any mid-twentieth century European dictator, 60 Minutes glorified the crackdown: “Germany is trying to bring some civility to the world wide web by policing it in a way most Americans could never imagine in an effort to protect discourse.” Nothing “protects discourse” like a jackboot kick aside the head of someone who insulted a German politician on Facebook, right? Mocking German leaders is punished like heresy was punished 500 years ago—though no one has been publicly torched yet.

Do the priggish German prosecutors realize that they are the latest incarnation of nineteenth-century German philosopher G. W. F. Hegel? Hegel declared: “Men are as foolish as to forget, in their enthusiasm for liberty of conscience and political freedom, the truth which lies in power.” Hegel bluntly equated government and truth: “For Truth is the Unity of the universal and subjective Will; and the Universal is to be found in the State, in its laws, its universal and rational arrangements.” Hegel probably did more to propel modern totalitarianism than perhaps any other philosopher.

Unfortunately, many Americans favor the US government becoming a Ministry of Truth like the German government. Fifty-five percent of American adults support government suppression of “false information,” according to a 2023 poll. But other polls show that only 20 percent trust the government to do the right thing most of the time. So why would people trust dishonest officials to forcibly eradicate “false information”? Did some people skip logic class, or what? A September 2023 poll revealed that almost half of Democrats believed that free speech should be legal “only under certain circumstances”—perhaps only when a rascally Republican is president?

Hegelian notions of “Government = Truth” propelled censorship here in recent years. Three years ago, Americans learned they lived under a Disinformation Governance Board with a ditzy Disinformation Czar who boasted of graduating from Bryn Mawr University. A public backlash led to the board’s termination but federal censors quickly and secretly resumed their sway over the internet.

Though American censors rarely invoke Hegel, their schemes tacitly presume that political power is divine, if not in origin, at least in its effect. The Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), created in 2018, has relied on “censorship by surrogate,” subcontracting the destruction of freedom. CISA partnered with federal grantees to form the Election Integrity Partnership a hundred days before the 2020 presidential election. That project, along with the efforts of other federal agencies, created an “unrelenting pressure” with “the intended result of suppressing millions of protected free speech postings by American citizens,” according to a 2023 ruling by Federal Judge Terry Doughty.

What standard did CISA use to determine whether Americans should be muzzled? CISA settled controversies by contacting government employees and “apparently always assumed the government official was a reliable source,” Judge Doughty noted. Any assertion by officialdom could suffice to justify suppression of comments or posts by private citizens. But when did government I.D. badges become the Oracle of Delphi?

During the 2020 presidential election campaign, CISA established a “Rumor Control” webpage to deal with threats to the election—including rumors that the feds were censoring Americans. CISA targeted for suppression assertions by Americans such as “mail-in voting is insecure”—despite the long history of absentee ballot fraud. Biden won the presidency in part thanks to Democrats exploiting the covid pandemic to open the floodgates to unverified mail-in ballots. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) declared, “Twitter was basically an FBI subsidiary before Elon Musk took it over.”

Censors act as if truth and lies are both self-evident. But as an investigative journalist hounding federal agencies, I have seen how government minimizes disclosures of its outrageous conduct. On April 19, 1993, 80 people died in a massive fire during an FBI tank assault on the home of the Branch Davidians. On that day, the FBI was adamant that they had nothing to do with the fire and also claimed to possess audiotapes proving the Davidians intentionally committed mass suicide. They never disclosed that proof. But anyone who suggested that the FBI was connected to the fatal fire was derided as an anti-government nut case, if not a public menace. A Los Angeles Times book reviewer practically blamed my criticism of the feds on Waco and other cases for the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing. But year by year, the FBI’s Waco storyline fell apart. Six years after the fire, a private investigator found proof that the FBI fired pyrotechnic grenades at the Davidians’ home before the fire, obliterating the FBI cover-up.

The same pattern of delayed disclosures or leaks annihilated the US government’s credibility on the epidemic of Gulf War syndrome cases in the 1990s, the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the glorious triumph for democracy and women’s rights after the US invaded Afghanistan. The “trickle down” version of truth was also stark in the notorious Duke Lacrosse case. With his persistent, savvy analysis and investigations, Mises editor Bill Anderson heroically helped vanquish a media and prosecutorial lynch mob.

Unfortunately, in Germany, and at least sporadically in the United States, “truth” is whatever the government proclaims. “Disinformation” is whatever contradicts the latest government pronouncements. It is irrelevant how many false statements politicians or bureaucrats make. Government retains a monopoly on truth and on the right to deceive.

Recent censorship schemes vivify how democracy is being turned into a parody: voters choose politicians who then dictate what citizens are permitted to think and say. Censors destroy freedom of thought as well as freedom of speech. Censorship seeks to force each person to live in mental isolation, with no sparks for their thoughts from fellow citizens. Shortly before Hegel’s rise to prominence, German philosopher Immanuel Kant wrote, “The external power that deprives man of the freedom to communicate his thoughts publicly, deprives him at the same time of his freedom to think.” By barricading individuals from each other, censors create millions of intellectual Robinson Crusoes, stranded on islands and trying to figure out everything for themselves. Prohibiting citizens from sharing facts of government abuses spawns a bastardized form of sovereign immunity. It minimizes opposition to political power grabs—often until it is too late to resist.

Other European nations are as bad or worse than Germany. Britain is notorious for raiding the homes and arresting anyone who makes allegations about immigrants and crime. According to Irish Senator Pauline O’Reilly, government must “restrict freedoms for the common good” when “a person’s views on other people’s identities” makes them “insecure.” Can I demand that government censor anyone who makes me insecure about my identity by mocking my vintage railroad engineer cap? By vastly expanding the definition of “hate speech,” politicians justify suppressing any views they disapprove.

Faith in officialdom to decree truth and punish error exemplifies growing political illiteracy. In earlier eras, Americans were renowned for heartily disdaining politicians who rose to power by making endless bogus promises.

Why would any prudent person expect bureaucrats to deliver “the truth, and nothing but the truth” like FEMA officials coming to the rescue after a flood? If the government can’t be trusted for reliable mail delivery, why in Hades would anyone trust government to judge and safeguard any thoughts citizens choose to share? Do people honestly expect that turning politicians into censors will evoke their inner sainthood? How can freedom of speech or any other freedom survive if so many people fall for so much BS from Washington?

Note: The views expressed on Mises.org are not necessarily those of the Mises Institute.

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The Federal Reserve Killed the Penny. Is MAGA Next?

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

President Trump recently issued an executive order instructing the US Mint to stop producing pennies. The reason for this is it costs nearly four cents to produce one penny. That’s right: the US government can’t even make pennies without losing money! President Trump may have signed the death certificate, but the Federal Reserve is the penny’s true killer. Since the Fed’s creation, the US dollar has lost over 97 percent of its value!

President Trump’s hopes for a successful presidency may be the Fed’s next victim. According to the government’s data, which is manipulated to understate price inflation, consumer prices rose by 0.5 percent in January, the biggest monthly increase since August of 2023. The public’s continued anger over price inflation —and the government’s response — is reflected in recent polling data. According to a February 19th Reuters-Ipsos poll, 53 percent of Americans think the economy is on the wrong track, while a mid-February Gallup poll found that 54 percent of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the economy. A reason for public dissatisfaction with President Trump’s economic performance is that, according to an early February survey by CBS, 66 percent of Americans think the Trump administration is not focused enough on lowering prices. Unfortunately, President Trump’s tariff policies will cause the prices of many consumer goods to increase.

President Trump can turn price inflation from a losing issue to a winning issue by following the lead of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head Elon Musk (and 2016 Presidential candidate Donald Trump) and push for an audit of the Federal Reserve. Mr. Musk has not only endorsed auditing the Fed — he has suggested I should be in charge of the audit.

Federal law prohibits the Government Accountability Office (GAO) from auditing the Federal Reserve’s conduct of monetary policy. This means the American public and Congress are kept in the dark regarding monetary policy that impacts every American’s economic well being. The Dodd-Frank Act, which passed in response to the 2008 market meltdown, authorized a limited audit of the Fed’s response to the meltdown. The audit found that between 2007 and 2010 the Fed committed over 16 trillion dollars to foreign central banks and private companies. Imagine what a full audit would uncover — and the reaction when the American people finally learn the truth about the central bank. Allowing a full audit of the Federal Reserve requires passage of the Audit the Fed bill.

President Trump should call on the House and Senate to pass the Audit the Fed bill so he can sign it into law. President Trump and Congress should also remove a major disincentive to the use of alternate currencies by adding to the tax bill Congress will consider later this year a provision exempting precious metals and cryptocurrencies from capital gains taxes. In addition, the Fed should be stopped from monetizing federal debt via legislation forbidding it from purchasing Treasury bonds.

Inflation is not caused by labor unions, illegal immigrants, or greedy businesses. It is the inevitable result of a fiat money system managed by a secretive central bank. By passing the Audit the Fed bill this year, President Trump and Congress can take the first step toward restoring a free-market money system.

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Is It Foreign Aid or Covert Action?

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

There has been considerable controversy surrounding the Trump administration decision to cutback on government agencies that are ostensibly committed to charitable, educational and other nation building activities both overseas and in the United States. This spending, amounting to scores of billions of dollars, has helped produce budget deficits that ballooned in the twenty-first century, largely due to the surge in overseas activity that occurred after the trauma of 9/11 when Jewish Supremacists decided the United States should serve as Israel’s policeman in the Middle East to enable the Jewish state’s expansion under the cover of making it “safe.” As the US is now verging on bankruptcy due to its unsustainable debts, the second incarnation of the Trump Administration has focused on cutting budgets in areas that it considers to be enemy occupied, often meaning “woke” or institutionally allied to the Democrats. Social programs as well as the bloated defense department spending were considered to be suitable targets so starting during the first week in February, the White House brought down the hammer when it went after a number of government agencies, inter alia calling for huge cuts in Pentagon spending and the complete elimination of the Education Department.

The White House also shut down the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), firing nearly all of its 10,000 employees, reportedly leaving only little more than 600 employees in place to assist in the shutting down or downsizing of facilities in the US and in foreign countries. Also, about 800 awards and contracts that are administered through USAID were reportedly being canceled. There have reportedly been some judicial delays in the firings due to the complexity of removing thousands of employees and families from overseas offices and housing, though the pause is likely to be only temporary.

Tax dollars are traditionally used corruptly to fund projects and policies dear to the hearts of politicians, which is why Ron Paul and others have called for sweeping audits, including of the Federal Reserve system and the Pentagon in particular. This hidden spending is particularly difficult to identify if the program is somehow linked to foreign policy and/or national security, which have traditionally been protected from scrutiny by denying nearly all public access to sensitive information based on the “need to know” principle to safeguard sources and vulnerable activities.

USAID was founded in 1961 during the John F. Kennedy administration to unite several foreign assistance organizations and programs under one agency. At first it was seriously intended to be a mechanism for the US to aid in health, disaster relief, socioeconomic development, environmental protection, democratic governance and education. Its focus, however, eventually became to guide development in parts of the world that suffered from what were considered to be dysfunctional governments and institutions in terms of American interests. USAID has always been funded by the federal government and its upper management has worked closely with the Department of State, to which it is technically accountable, and the intelligence agencies in particular. Its budget in 2023 was $43 billion. Trump’s reduction in force (RIF) of USAID has been accompanied by a shake-up in its management, its remaining responsibilities now being in the hands of the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has considerable experience in special agency management after having served on the Board of the National Endowment for Democracy’s (NED) Republican subsidiary component, the International Republican Institute (IRI). NED, which operates extensively overseas, has also been stripped of funding by Trump.

The dismantling of USAID does not necessarily mean the organization will completely go away, it will just be much reduced and under new management. It will likely have a new mission, though no one is at this point sure what that will mean. And USAID and NED are not alone as the presidential memo has called for a halt to the funding of all the government components that are dependent on taxpayer generated funds to provide what is perhaps euphemistically referred to as “foreign aid.” USAID and NED do have humanitarian projects, i.e. feeding the hungry, but they are primarily politically driven. The NED component IRI puts it this way on its website “Our mission at IRI—advancing democracy worldwide—is a battle with many fronts. I am proud to say that IRI is supportive of every endeavor that will bring freedom to more people. We have made progress in our mission by giving hope to those who wish to protest on a city street, run for office, or cast a ballot.”

So the aid organizations overtly have a political role, but how does it translate in practice and does it extend to playing favorites with the US media and political parties? Trump has put it another way, declaring that USAID leaders were “radical left lunatics.” This is what he claims on his website Truth Social:

“LOOKS LIKE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS HAVE BEEN STOLEN AT USAID, AND OTHER AGENCIES, MUCH OF IT GOING TO THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA AS A ‘PAYOFF’ FOR CREATING GOOD STORIES ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS. THE LEFT WING ‘RAG,’ KNOWN AS ‘POLITICO,’ SEEMS TO HAVE RECEIVED $8,000,000. Did the New York Times receive money??? Who else did??? THIS COULD BE THE BIGGEST SCANDAL OF THEM ALL, PERHAPS THE BIGGEST IN HISTORY! THE DEMOCRATS CAN’T HIDE FROM THIS ONE. TOO BIG, TOO DIRTY!”

There are, in fact, credible reports that the 2019 impeachment of Trump was driven by the actions and disinformation coming from CIA, FBI and USAID operatives, so it is plausible to assume that Trump is now settling scores. Beyond that, USAID and NED are both notorious for their roles in the business of covertly supporting opposition political parties worldwide and assisting in regime change. Billionaire philanthropist George Soros, through his network of organizations, received $260 milllion from USAID for funneling funds to non-governmental-organizations (NGOs) connected with Soros’ Open Society Foundations, which are known for advocating for radical policies and regime changes globally. Soros is also a Democratic Party favorite and major fund raiser, having recently received at a White House ceremony the honor of the Presidential Medal of Freedom presented in absentia to his son Alex from outgoing President Joe Biden.

As a result, both USAID and NED have been banned from foreign countries, including Russia, due to their meddling in local politics. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who was often a target of USAID activity, immediately thanked Trump for his decision to cancel USAID. Both USAID and NED were deeply involved in Eastern Europe. Former Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has revealed that the aid agencies were deeply engaged in the multiple source $5 billion dollar multiyear US “investment” in Ukraine that culminated in regime change in 2013 and led to the current war with Russia. In government circles it has frequently been asserted that USAID and NED and other such organizations now do what the CIA used to do routinely in terms of regime change between its founding and the 1990s.

One might suggest that recent US governments, operating through their various subsidiaries like USAID and NED have been funding just about everything to control a world community in line with American interests. Mainstream media worldwide that is directly or indirectly funded reportedly includes journalists, news outlets, and activist NGOs and sites – and that’s just through USAID. That would appear to include Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The Guardian, NBC, CNN, NPR, NYT, Politico, PBS, The Financial Times, The Atlantic, The Daily Telegraph, as well as much more media in the developing world. The anti-China hysteria media “ecosystem” currently depends on US government funding, and is already complaining about the impending shutdown of USAID support. To cite only one example of how it is packaged, Reuters news service has received millions in funding from the US government specifically for “active social engineering.”

Labor unions are also funded by USAID which is also behind the recent political unrest in Slovakia. It has also paid for multiple coup attempts in Venezuela, funded high profile trips to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky to improve his image and popularity, and funded al-Qaeda linked groups in Syria to successfully overthrow the government in Damascus. Going back to Trump’s first term of office, it is interesting to observe that most of the “aid” to opposition parties to overthrow Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela was delivered during 2019, so Trump, guided by hardliners John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, was not at that time shy about regime change. In fact, Voice Of America (VOA), which often served as a CIA mouthpiece, even reported that Trump had tripled aid to opposition figure Juan Guaido to $56 million. Those asking themselves why Trump has now decided to “oppose” the very semi-covert agency that he’s also been using for regime change have a point, but it might be appropriate to see the shakeup as a warning against government information, law enforcement and intelligence agencies again becoming tools of the Democratic Party politicians.

Defenders of USAID are arguing that the agency is being maligned, that in addition to its political profile it is heavily engaged in promoting health and wellness worldwide. The head of USAID under Joe Biden was the highly controversial and very much “woke” Samantha Power, who claims somewhat disingenuously that the agency budget of $38 billion in 2023 included something like $20 billion in spending that should appropriately be described as humanitarian. Those who are the recipients of the programs, mostly in the third world, will consequently suffer from the defunding of aid. If that is actually so, it perhaps would make sense to roll such programs into a mechanism that would not be tied to regime change and corruption of local governments and media.

There is some question even in Congress concerning whether there will be a new centralized aid agency and what it will be called or do now that it has been reduced in size and will likely have a tiny budget relative to what it once enjoyed. It is early days and the answer to that question will likely emerge before too long, but it should be observed that at no point has Rubio or anyone else in the Trump administration actually condemned aggressive US engagement abroad or claimed they will bring it to an end. The State Department has even officially said the only goal is to ensure the good things that USAID did will continue by “advancing American interests abroad.” Given some of the recent aggressive positions taken by the Trump Administration over Gaza, Panama, Canada, Mexico, Iran and Greenland as well as the tendency on the part of its top officials to increase pressure on perceived adversaries, it may be that the US isn’t changing course at all. It quite plausibly might be doubling down, and organizations like USAID and NED, even if their names, roles and leadership change, will likely be integral to that process.

Reprinted with permission from Unz Review.

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Trump’s Shocking Curvatures

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

“This is Putin and Trump’s world now”.

Trump and his team have been busy dismantling – and exposing to public view – the mechanism to the all-encompassing narrative control machine which has been shown to be both authoritarian and industrial in its global scope.

The Musk investigations have begun to peer into the USAID complex. They reveal a system that Musk and President Trump postulate, is one fully designed to generate fraud.

The big picture however is not that USAID has been a sub-silo for CIA; that is not revelatory. What is revealing, however, is the evidence that USAID was so heavily involved in domestic influence operations. This latter aspect serves to highlight USAID’s relationship with the CIA and the fact that CIA, FBI, Dept. of Homeland Security and USAID were one big Intelligence Community structure, held together (in flimsy legal terms) by the Office of Director of National Intelligence (the role that Tulsi Gabbard will fill now she has been confirmed in post).

Trump’s insistence on Gabbard for the post reflects his absolute need for Intelligence ‘truth’; but it is also likely that the DNI will become the locus for unscrambling and revealing the shadow ‘Intelligence Control Machine’ that is twin to the narrative manipulation complex.

Likely more revelations will follow, as part to a carefully managed release of further exposés – adding to the atmosphere of a breathless hurtling towards a new era. And keeping the opposition off-balance.

The Spectator magazine correctly observes that the head-spinning acceleration towards a new era is not confined to America, Canada, Greenland and Panama: “There is a wind of change blowing through the West. It emanates from Washington DC”, Gavin Mortimer writes.

A number of EU leaders congregated last weekend at a ‘Patriots for Europe’ (PfE) summit in Madrid. Geert Wilders declared:

“We are living in an historic age, and my message to all the old leaders from Macron to Scholz, to your own Pedro Sánchez?: It’s time. It’s over now. They are history”.

Viktor Orbán said:

“The Trump tornado has changed the world in just a few weeks … Yesterday we were heretics, today we’re mainstream”.

Marine Le Pen claimed that the West is “facing a truly global turning point … Meanwhile, the European Union seems to be in a state of shock … [in the consensus Brussels view however], Trump isn’t an inspiring figure – but an antagonizing one”.

Nonetheless, in the U.S., the first CBS-YouGov snapshot poll shows what public sentiment thinks of Trump: 69% see him as tough; 63% as energetic; 60 % as focussed, and 58% as effective. His overall job rating stands at 53%. Just how Trump would like his image to be, we imagine.

Trump’s ‘showman’ image and ‘shock psycho-therapy’ clearly works for domestic America. In the world beyond, it is another story. There they have only Trump’s ‘reported’ rhetoric by which to judge. They do not get to see the full theatrical ‘global leadership show’, so his conjuring is understood more literally. And the rest of the world is only too aware of America’s history of broken-words (and withdrawals from agreements).

Overseas, Trump sticks with this same strategy of presenting shock interventions, or rather, an image (Gaza, for example) of an aspirational outcome that is intended to be novel, and to evoke surprise and evenshock. The purpose seems to be to toss a psychological grenade into congealed and stultified political paradigms, hoping to find movement and intending perhaps, to trigger changed conversations.

There can be validity to such an approach, providing it does not just stick a wrench into complex geo-politics. And for Trump, this is a real danger: Advancing extreme and unrealistic notions that can simply confuse and undermine confidence that his outcome could be realistic.

The inescapable fact is that the three key foreign policy issues which Trump faces however, are not ‘conversations’ – they relate to existential wars; to death and destruction. And wars are not so susceptible to off-hand grenade tossing. Worse, ‘careless words’ fired from the hip, have real import and may produce unintended and distinctly adverse consequences.

The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas remains close to the brink of collapse, as “the magician” [Netanyahu] continues working to sabotage it; nevertheless Hamas’ pressure in recent days worked, and the ceasefire (for now) continues.

Trump may have believed that by unilaterally raising the stakes (demanding publicly the release of “all” Israeli hostages this Saturday) – thereby collapsing a complex process down to just one single release – he would be able to bring more hostages home quicker. However, in so threatening, he risked the complete collapse of the deal, since the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, and the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza in Phase Two, form the absolute bedrock to Hamas’ continued participation in the negotiations.

Any resulting resumption of the Israeli destruction of Gaza would also constitute a black stain on Trump’s aspiration to end wars – for he would then ‘own’ the consequences to a renewal of war in the Middle East.

Netanyahu’s principal concern primordially lies with not completing the deal, but with the continued survival of his government. This was the meaning to his statement in reaction to Trump’s ‘threats’ (hell let loose) that Israel would halt negotiations on Phase Two of the Gaza deal, and in Netanyahu’s echoing of Trump’s demand that Hamas release “all” the hostages on Saturday – or else. The Israeli government however, duly has backtracked under pressure from Hamas – Israel, officials report, has conveyed the message to Hamas that the ceasefire will continue, should the three hostages be released this Saturday.

Whilst it is now obvious from the Trump Team’s discourse that the U.S. is intent to present a new face to the coming multipolar world – “with multi-great powers in different parts of the planet”, as Marco Rubio outlined in a recent interview – it is also true, however, that this change came about (was driven, in fact) by a seismic shift in how the world views America. Rubio effectively admits to this ‘truth’ when he adds that “the postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us”.

Some members of the Trump Team, however, persist with threats (‘inflicting maximum pain’, ‘bombing to extinction’) that hark back to the old era of U.S. imperium. That is to say, some of Trump’s Team repeat Rubio’s rubric well enough, but without showing any indication that they have been affected or transformed by the new understanding. The ‘seismic shift’ is two-way.

The World is in a new era too. It has had enough of western unlateral impositions. It is this that triggered their shift. Their swivel of ‘the face that the U.S. presents to the world’ – the one outlined by Rubio. Understanding that both Hegemon and its vassals have transformed demands new approaches by all sides.

When Trump signed a Presidential Order for maximum pressure on Iran, the Supreme Leader simply said “No” to all talks with the U.S. Trump was just too unpredictable and untrustworthy, Khamenei said. Kellogg’s exaggerated claim that Iran ‘is scared’ and effectively defenceless, didn’t bring the expected response of talks. It brought defiance.

The West’s insensibility to what is going on in the world – and why the world is what it is – has been made possible because it was partially disguised through the ability of the U.S. – in the past era – to be able to impose itself on crises, and control the way that those problems were presented across the global narrative machine.

Trump’s Ukraine Envoy Kellogg said recently that Russia’s current sanctions ‘pain level’ is at about 3 out of 10, and that Trump has much more room to raise that ‘pain level’ by putting sanctions pressure on Russian oil and gas:

“You have to put economic pressure; you have to put diplomatic pressure, some type of military pressures and levers that you’re going to use underneath those to make sure [this goes] where we want it to go”.

The arrogance and misreading of the Russian position in Kellogg’s statement is so complete that it brought Russian Deputy FM Sergei Ryabkov to warn that Moscow-Washington relations are “teetering at the brink of complete rupture”; the ‘antagonistic content’ of Russian-U.S. relations has become ‘very critical’ today, Ryabkov cautioned:

“Washington’s attempts to give Moscow demands or to demonstrate the alleged doing of ‘a great favour’ in exchange for unacceptable U.S. demands are bound to end with failure in the dialogue with Russia”.

This ominous signal was stated by Ryabkov, despite Russia actively wanting a strategic, big-picture, written security deal with the U.S. – albeit one achieved on equal terms.

Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism has cataloged the deep-seated Russian experience (and resentment) for the West’s history of duplicity. It runs deep, and begs a question whose answer is yet to be seen: ‘The elephant in the room’. Drafting a paper of understandings on Ukraine is one thing. But Russians remain sceptical as to whether it can achieve a process that is written, binding and trustworthy.

Behind this lies a second question: Russia can see Trump searching for leverage over Moscow. But time (what Yves Smith calls “military time”) runs to a different tempo to that of “political time”. Trump wants to end the conflict, AND be seen to have ended it. The point here is that Russia’s slower military time may end with Trump falling into what Steve Bannon warned could be a deadly trap: ‘Too long, and you (Trump) will end by owning it’ (as Nixon ended up ‘owning’ Vietnam).

Trump Team members may, at one level, ‘understand’ the new balance of power. Yet culturally and unconsciously, they adhere to the notion that the West (and Israel) remain exceptional, and that all other actors only change behaviour through pain and overwhelming leverage.

What did emerge from the transcript of Trump’s long call with Putin was that it touched on big issues and did not at all stay captive to the Ukraine issue.

Yves Smith puts the ‘elephant in the room’ issue this way:

“It took a full 17 years from Putin’s 2008 Munich Security Conference speech, where he called for a multipolar world order, for the U.S. to officially acknowledge, via Mark Rubio, that the U.S. unipolar period was unnatural and had ended”.

Let us hope it will not take as long for Russia to achieve a new European security architecture. As The Telegraph avers: “This is Putin and Trump’s world now”.

The views of individual contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture Foundation.

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No Way Out

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

CBS’s 60-Minutes show was at it again Sunday night in the most prime primetime weekend news slot on the old broadcast spectrum — Sunday at 7:00, the power-hour of national mind-fuckery — with blob PR-agent Scott Pelley singing the blues over the systematic disassembly of the rogue bureaucracy. Trouble is, fewer and fewer minds are susceptible to the argument that the blob exists to “save our democracy.”

You’re supposed to go boo-hoo because the Department of Justice is under new management. Now get this: since 2015 the Department of Justice and its step-child, the FBI, have devoted their vast and savage powers to manifold acts of sedition, treason, malicious political prosecution, obstruction of justice, suborning perjuries, and countless other abuses of law in an ever-widening gyre of ass-covering operations as year-by-year their crimes multiplied.

RussiaGate was initially a cover-up op for the Clintons’ many acts of mischief and moneygrubbing when Hillary ran for President, just as the Mueller Special Counsel Investigation was a cover-up for the crimes committed by the DOJ and FBI after Hillary lost to Mr. Trump, just as Impeachment #1 was a cover-up for the Ukraine money laundry and its role in RussiaGate, and Impeachment #2 was a coverup for the 2020 election ballot hijinks that got rid of Mr. Trump, and just as the Mar-a-Lago raid was a cover-up to retrieve evidence of all-the-above that Mr. Trump had archived, and just as the flurry of Trump prosecutions in 2024 was the final (and amazingly inept) effort to put the Golden Golem of Greatness out-of-business forever.

But somehow, perhaps an act of Providence, he prevailed over all that adversity, like some paladin out of the ancient myths, and is suddenly back in charge — to the abject horror of all those lawyers and spooks behind the aforesaid ops, now nervously awaiting subpoenas in their Beltway McMansions. You will learn shortly that there is a difference between “justice” based on fraud and fakery and justice served by way of fact-patterns and evidence.

And so late Sunday evening after the 60-Minutes pity party, came the pretty astounding news that former Secret Service agent and now podcaster Dan Bongino is appointed Deputy Director of the FBI. Astounding because Mr. Bongino has documented the worst blob crimes of recent years in a series of books that comprehensively presents the entire tapestry of lawlessness in microscopic detail. He knows the whole sordid, epic story, all the names, and all the money trails in every obscure corner of the worst aggregate matrix of scandals in US history. Believe me when I tell you, this is like a death sentence for the blob.

For instance, Mr. Bongino is acutely aware of what went down on J-6, 2021, when a supposed pipe-bomb was “found” at the DNC headquarters, the part it was supposed to play in the larger J-6 op to rid Washington of Mr. Trump, and the lying confabulations of former FBI Director Christopher Wray afterward. Now he is in a position to compel current and former FBI officials to answer questions about that, and much more, from the Crossfire Hurricane scam to the shenanigans in Judge Juan Merchan’s court last summer.

Those investigations will require a whole dedicated division of new FBI agents while Kash Patel attends to the latest grifts uncovered by the DOGE, the threats against public order and safety posed by countless military-aged illegal aliens ushered into the country by “Joe Biden” and Alejandro Mayorkas, the turpitudes of former AG Merrick Garland, and the crimes committed by officials in the CDC, FDA, and other public health agencies around Covid-19, and lingering monstrosities such as the Jeffrey Epstein capers, the huge fortunes mysteriously amassed by US senators and congressmen, the 1960s assassinations of the Kennedys and MLK, the censorship operations conducted by the combined FBI / CIA, State Department, and dark offices of the Pentagon, the theft of US largess given over to Ukraine, and the infiltration of American institutions by China.

The Trump admin knows that it will have to strike hard and fast in all these matters and more. Cases will have to be prepared briskly and removed to federal courts outside the blob-controlled DC district. A great many political figures will have to be taken out of circulation. It will be helpful to finally understand the bizarre capture of the old legacy news media so, for instance, it becomes clear why an outfit such as CBS’s 60-Minutes ended up on the dark side, committed to burying the truth and distorting reality at every opportunity.

The Democratic Party was the political enabling partner in all this sedition and treason and it is hard to see how it comes out of this alive. Expect to see a lemming stampede of resignations out of Congress and the Senate. And some of them, like Sen. Adam Schiff, and Rep. Eric Swalwell could end up in prison. You saw the fear in their public antics the past two weeks as the cabinet confirmations mounted. They know what’s coming. They are desperate, but the power they once wielded is now in other hands. There’s no way out.

On a bright note, it was heartwarming to see that Joy Reid got “axed” from her primetime perch at MSNBC over the weekend. (Nobody axed me, but I approve!) She’ll be doing a must-watch farewell show this coming week. Don’t miss it!

Reprinted with permission from JamesHowardKunstler.com.

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Statement on Free Speech to Oxford Union

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

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You Don’t Actually Need To Pick a Team

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

You don’t have to pick a team.

You don’t have to side with Democrats because Trump is bad.

You don’t have to side with Trump because Democrats are bad.

You don’t have to give Trump “credit” for anything.

You don’t have to give Trump the benefit of the doubt.

You don’t have to buy into narratives that Trump presents some dangerous new threat that other US presidents did not.

You don’t have to trust right wing media just because the liberal mainstream media are liars.

You don’t have to like Trump just because bad people don’t like him.

There’s this weird assumption that Americans are under some kind of moral obligation to take a side side either with Trump or with his pretend opposition in the Democratic Party, and it’s just silly nonsense. You don’t have to, and you should not.

The US empire is the single most murderous and corrupt power structure on this planet, by an extremely massive margin. Everyone at the upper echelon of empire management is the sort of person who is willing to facilitate the incomprehensible atrocities and abuses that are necessary for the continuation of that empire. Thinking you need to choose a favorite empire manager is like thinking you need to choose a favorite Nazi.

A lucid mind does not look at the turmoil of corruption and psychopathy of the Washington swamp and start calculating which of the vampiric slime beasts are their friend. A lucid mind looks at all the managers of the US-centralized power structure as part of the same enemy.

Sure the swamp monsters bicker and contend with one another along various fronts; you’ll see that under any power structure. That doesn’t mean they’re not all devoted to advancing the interests of an empire that feeds on human blood, and it certainly doesn’t mean they are your friend.

No US president will ever be your friend. No Washington politician, empire manager or oligarch will ever be your friend. Donald Trump is not your friend. Chuck Schumer is not your friend. Elon Musk is not your friend. Hakeem Jeffries is not your friend. Marco Rubio is not your friend. Bernie Sanders is not your friend. JD Vance is not your friend. AOC is not your friend. RFK Jr is not your friend. Elizabeth Warren is not your friend. Tulsi Gabbard is not your friend. Joe Biden is not your friend.

These people have some differences, but what they all have in common is that they have all knowingly made careers out of serving the interests of a globe-spanning empire that can only be maintained by nonstop tyranny, abuse, and murder. That one quality rules them out as anyone you should side with, sympathize with, or support. The only reason this isn’t immediately obvious to everyone is that the entire western world is marinating in a highly controlled information ecosystem where such obvious facts are hidden from our perception.

Whenever I talk about how everyone in Washington is a corrupt monster I get called negative or “blackpilled”, but nothing could be further from the truth. I have plenty of hope for positive outcomes for our world, I’m just not delusional enough to believe those outcomes will ever come from the heart of the power structure most responsible for our world’s problems.

I have plenty of hope in humanity as a collective. Plenty of hope in the real revolutionary movements of the global south. Plenty of hope in the possibilities that could potentially open up with the rise of a multipolar world. I just have no hope in the one power structure on earth nobody should ever place any hope in, in the same way nobody should look to a rapist currently committing rape for solutions on how to curb sexual assault. They are the problem. They are what needs to be fought.

Real solutions will begin emerging as soon as there is sufficiently widespread understanding of our problem. Our task — and it is a difficult one — is to punch through the propaganda matrix of imperial narrative control by circulating as much true information as we can about our world, our rulers, their abuses, and their lies. In this way we can start opening eyes to the reality of our situation and begin organizing together to effect real change using the power of our numbers.

Is that easy? No. Is it harder than casting a vote for your preferred presidential candidate? Yes. But unlike voting and cheerleading for your favorite swamp monster, it stands a chance of actually bringing positive change to our world.

____________________

My work is entirely reader-supported, so if you enjoyed this piece here are some options where you can toss some money into my tip jar if you want to. Go here to find video versions of my articles. If you’d prefer to listen to audio of these articles, you can subscribe to them on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Soundcloud or YouTube. Go here to buy paperback editions of my writings from month to month. All my work is free to bootleg and use in any way, shape or form; republish it, translate it, use it on merchandise; whatever you want. The best way to make sure you see the stuff I publish is to subscribe to the mailing list on Substack, which will get you an email notification for everything I publish. All works co-authored with my husband Tim Foley.

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Down the Toobin

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

Ah, the beauty of language! The English one is as rich as they come, with words such as “osculation,” “verbigeration,” “concupiscence,” “mithridatism,” and “onomatopoeia.” I could go on forever. The latest to be added to an already bulging dictionary is “Toobin.” For any of you unfamiliar with what doing a Toobin is, it is something most young people, especially boys, do while dreaming of sex with a girl. Doing a Toobin became part of the language after Jeffrey Toobin, a left-wing writer for CNN and The New Yorker, was caught masturbating on camera while talking to his editors at the magazine. The New Yorker has become so woke nowadays that masturbation, I would think, is a sine qua non for its writers. He was nevertheless suspended, but doing a Toobin is now part of the language, and if some of you oldies out there have forgotten all about it, turn on CNN and you’ll see Toobin raging against Trump and—hopefully—not masturbating.

When I was at boarding school during the ’50s, a Toobin was referred to in manuals as self-abuse. Not many of us agreed with that depiction, but I’m getting away from the point of my story, which is about language, and the importance of language. Control of language is the most important part of a totalitarian regime. Those nice guys who gave us political correctness knew what they were doing. The natural continuation was woke and the forbidden words in order to get us all thinking and speaking the way they wanted us to. Threats to freedom of speech by woke adherents became the closest Uncle Sam had ever come to a dictatorship, with the media, the academy, Hollywood, and some very big corporations in cahoots. Censoring free speech by The New York Times—and altering history with its false 1619 theory—now lies in ruins thanks to The Donald and chaps like a rich man with twelve children called Musk. Yippee!

“What a world these bums had in store for us.”

Mind you, it’s still much too early, but I can’t help celebrating. DEI is not dead, and rats like Zuckerberg will switch back against Trump the moment he stumbles. But at least we’re talking like human beings once again: We can now buy things rather than purchase them. I can get help rather than obtain it. I can write about my parents rather than my father and mother, and talk about the manpower we lack at times rather than the people who are absent. And my kids can tell me about their husband, wife, boyfriend, or girlfriend rather than their partners.

My friend of more than sixty years, the actress Joan Collins, refused throughout the PC terror period to call herself an actor. “I am an actress,” she corrected those who called her an actor. Good for you, Joanie, and that goes for other terms as well, such as “hero,” “God,” and “chair” to refer to women. De-gendering our way of speaking is supposed to empower the weaker sex, the one I always refer to as the fairer one. It did nothing of the sort. It simply confused the issue and made it possible for the dwarfs of the media to play big shot.

A similar impulse has guided efforts by the PC dictators to popularize inclusive language about race and gender. Engineering how people speak is a totalitarian regime’s dream come true. When I told someone I hardly knew that I was nearly blind in one eye he corrected me: “You mean you’re visually handicapped…” I told him to go and reproduce himself but used a word that begins with the letter F.

Read the Whole Article

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President Trump’s Idea of Replacing the Income Tax With Tariffs Is Sound and a Great Advancement in the Restoration of Freedom

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

Prior to 1913 the US government was financed by tariffs. It was under tariffs, not free trade, that the United States industrialized and became a manufacturing nation. Indeed, the Union invaded and destroyed the Confederacy in order to impose the Morrill Tariff on the South that enabled the North to industrialize. The North could not compete with British industry and required the protection of a tariff.

It is extraordinary to me that it has gone unremarked for 112 years that the income tax, which required a constitutional amendment, resurrected slavery. In actuality, white people voted to impose slavery on themselves.

Americans did not realize what was happening. The income threshold for being subject to the tax was so high that few qualified to be taxed. Moreover, the first tax rate was 1% and the progression halted at 7%. To be taxed at 7% you had to have a phenomenal amount of income for those days of more than $500,000, the equivalent of multi-millions today. In the US in the 1900s a person who made $70,000 a year was considered extremely wealthy. When Henry Ford’s innovation of the moving assembly line was introduced in 1913, he raised his workers’ pay from $2.34 per day to $5, producing an annual income of $1,300.

Only 3% of the US population was subject to the income tax. Many years ago I wrote an account of how the income tax amendment passed. In Georgia the state legislative leader said Georgia had no objection to the amendment as no one in the state of Georgia had an income high enough to be subject to the tax.

Everyone overlooked that once an income tax was in place, the thresholds could be lowered and the rates raised. By 1918, that is, within 5 years, the top tax rate had jumped to 77%, dropping to 25% in 1925.

When the 16th Amendment to the Constitution was passed, slavery was resurrected. Historically, the definition of a free person is a person who owns his own labor. Serfs and slaves did not own their own labor. Serfs were not owned by feudal lords, the the lords had use rights to as much as 30% of a serf’s labor. The labor of an enslaved person belonged to the slave’s owner.

An income tax establishes government ownership over part of your labor. How much depends on your income and the tax rate at the time. If you fail to deliver the government’s share of your income, you are severely punished and can spend many years in prison. Every American income taxpayer is partly enslaved and partly free.

A tariff is a tax on consumption, the preferable means of taxation according to the classical economists. It establishes no government ownership rights in your income. An income tax not only gives government a part ownership of your working time, it is also a tax on factors of production — labor and capital. Taxing factors of production reduces economic growth and Gross Domestic Product. It is a counter-productive tax that suppresses output.

The substitution of a tariff for an income tax is a pro-growth policy that will produce higher incomes and raise living standards. Free labor is always more productive because you are working for yourself and your family.

Out-of-date neoliberal economists argue wrongly that tariffs violate free trade and reduce economic growth. In the Lionel Robbins Lecture in 2000, published by the MIT Press, Ralph E. Gomory and William J. Baumol proved that the case for free trade was false and that at best the notion that free trade was mutually beneficial was an occasional special case. Paul Samuelson found their proof convincing, but overall the economists have preferred their free trade indoctrination to the effort it takes to master a new understanding.

The information from DOGE of the enormous fraud, abuse, and self-dealing that the US budget contains as a slush fund for insiders and for bribing foreign politicians and overthrowing foreign governments indicates that sufficient reductions are possible to establish a tariff at a reasonable rate.

To rescue Americans from the slavery of an income tax would be one the greatest achievements in history. Let’s achieve it. See this.

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Notre Dame Provost Says DEI ‘Equally Important’ as Catholic Faith in Hiring Process

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

SOUTH BEND, Indiana – The University of Notre Dame is doubling down on diversity, inclusion, and equity practices despite a growing number of major corporations and institutions of higher learning across the U.S. scaling back their support for the controversial initiatives.

A report published by First Things this week revealed that the school’s provost informed faculty three days before President Trump was sworn in via email that they are looking to “increase the number of women and underrepresented minorities on our faculty.”

John McGreevy also told employees that the move was “equally important” as the first “goal” he laid out in the email, which was “to hire Catholic faculty and other faculty deeply committed to our mission to ensure continuity with our past and our fate as the world’s leading global Catholic research university.”

While it has been long regarded as the most prominent Catholic university in America, Notre Dame has increasingly failed to live up to its professed religious identity. As reported by LifeSiteNews before, the school gave pro-abortion Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden it’s prestigious Laetare Medal. It has also hosted drag shows on campus, celebrated June as “pride month,” and promoted many other pro-LGBT initiatives.

According to First Things, Notre Dame founded the “Office of Institutional Transformation” in 2022 and brought on several DEI staff to promote woke ideology on campus. Salaries for such persons were reportedly north of $6.5 million in total. A “Center for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” was also established in 2023.

Not all is lost in South Bend, however. Joshua Haskell, a valedictorian for the class of 2024, recent launched a nonprofit that seeks to help college-age men break addictions to pornography.

While enrolled in the school’s honors business program, Haskell published a tell-all article titled “Escaping Porn’s Prison” in The Observer, a student-run newspaper. Haskell said that the response to his essay was “overwhelmingly positive” and that more than 100 of his fellow male students signed up for the program.

Also in 2024, student journalists who exposed a pro-abortion professor filed a lawsuit for over $100,000 to recoup attorney’s fees after defeating a defamation suit triggered by their coverage. An Indiana appeals court eventually sided with the students against the professor and her case was tossed out.

Founded by French priest Fr. Edward Sorin in 1842, the university’s formal name is Notre Dame du Lac, or “Our Lady of the Lake.” While widely popular due to its highly accomplished football team, Notre Dame is also home to the Moreau Seminary for the Congregation of Holy Cross.

This originally appeared on Lifesite News.

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Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out of Central Europe or Abandon NATO’s Article 5

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

The era of Europe freeloading off of the US and its liberal-globalists manipulating it into doing their geopolitical bidding against Russia might soon end to the benefit of peace-loving people and businessmen on all three sides.

Germany’s Bild cited unnamed members of Western security services to sensationally report that Trump is allegedly planning to pull all US troops out of Central Europe in compliance with one of the security guarantee requests that Putin put forth in December 2021 as an attempt to avert the special operation. Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner to become Germany’s next Chancellor, shortly thereafter publicly declared that his country must prepare for the possibility that Trump abandons NATO’s Article 5.

He’s unlikely to do either of these things, but American policy towards NATO will certainly change in the coming future, which will likely take the form of what was detailed in the policy brief that was published at the Trump-affiliated Center for Renewing America in February 2023. Titled “Pivoting the US Away from Europe to a Dormant NATO”, it describes how the US can get the EU to defend Europe while the US focuses on containing China in Asia and was analyzed here last July, which readers should review.

This goal explains why Trump is demanding that all NATO allies spend 5% of GDP on defense and accounts for the nascent Russian-US “New Détente”. Brokering an armistice or peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is meant to free up some of the US’ forces in Central Europe, which includes Germany, for redeployment to Asia. Forcing the Europeans to accept what had practically been their worst nightmare for the past three years should then motivate them to increase defense spending.

New US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth praised Poland as “the model ally on the continent” during his trip to Warsaw earlier this month and Trump sought to make Poland the US’ top ally there during his first term so he probably won’t pull out of there. In fact, “Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US’ Top Partner In Europe” for the reasons explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, which boil down to restoring its historical geopolitical role as a wedge between Germany and Russia.

The Baltics might not fare the same though since they have nowhere near the same regional significance as Poland does and they could try to provoke a war with Russia in order to drag the US in via NATO. Accordingly, Trump might calculate that it’s better to withdraw some or even all American troops from there while conveying to them that the US won’t come to their aid if they instigate a regional conflict, which could be expressed either behind the scenes or through one of his characteristic pronouncements.

The newfound US-German political tensions could even possibly see the US redeploy some troops from there to Poland, which in the most extreme scenario could result in transferring the headquarters of its European Command from Stuttgart to some Polish city, though it’s too early to say for certain. After all, something as serious as the second-mentioned requires a lot of work, and Trump might also wager that it’s better to keep the headquarters where they’re at in order to not lose more influence in Germany.

In any case, redeploying US troops from Europe to Asia would likely please Russia even if some are transferred from Germany to Poland, especially if Trump makes it clear that NATO members can’t provoke a conflict with Russia and expect America to ride to their rescue via Article 5. Retaining some troops in Europe alongside the integrity of Article 5 amidst the aforesaid conditions could be a pragmatic compromise between the US and Russia’s security interests.

The purpose would be to alleviate their security dilemma that was worsened by NATO’s eastward expansion after the end of the Old Cold War all while maintaining some American military influence on the continent as the US “Pivots (back) to Asia” to more muscularly contain China. The era of Europe freeloading off of the US and its liberal-globalists manipulating it into doing their geopolitical bidding against Russia would end to the benefit of peace-loving people and businessmen on all three sides.

This originally appeared on Andrew Korybko’s Newsletter.

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When Markets Misbehave

Mar, 25/02/2025 - 05:01

Markets misbehave, sometimes when we least expect it. How badly they misbehave depends on the soundness of the hull and the level of self-reinforcing hubris.

When Benoit Mandelbrot’s book The (Mis)behavior of Markets was published in 2004, it was a revelation for many of us. I remember sitting in my car in a parking lot, unwilling to tear myself away from reading it.

Here’s the super-short summary: from time to time markets crash for no visible reason. The internal dynamics of market structures are fractal, and one feature of this structure is that markets break down unpredictably. After the fact, we seek an external trigger–a Federal Reserve “policy error,” inflation fears, etc.–but these post-mortem explanations gloss over the cause, which is the inherent instability of market structures.

Markets can trundle along for years appearing to be stable and controllable. Any spot of bother can be corrected with a reduction in interest rates or quantitative easing. Everything is known and controllable.

But this control is illusory. Out of the blue, markets stop behaving. They misbehave, and possibly quite badly.

Nature offers many examples. The seas are relatively calm, and suddenly an enormous rogue wave appears.

At that point, the condition of the ship matters. A sound craft will survive the rogue wave, the leaky, rotten hulk won’t.

Human hubris also matters. If the passengers and crew of the hulk have been persuaded by each other’s happy talk that the ship is rock-solid, then its breaking apart will come as a nasty shock.

In the current zeitgeist, the consensus is the mighty ship of the stock market is a superliner. No matter how big the rogue wave, the ship will handle it easily.

But what if the consensus is wrong, and we’re all passengers on a rotting hulk gussied up with new paint? What if the consensus isn’t based on the soundness of the hull, but on the self-reinforcing happy-talk around the dessert cart and bar?

The consensus is convinced the ship is unsinkable, and so the guaranteed path to profit is to “buy the dip” after the rogue wave has passed. This guarantee is not actually causal; it’s recency bias, as “buy the dip” has worked like magic for 15 years.

Nobody’s interested in leaving the first class casino to get in a lifeboat when guaranteed profits beckon. The question is: how sound is the hull? Who’s actually checking, and who’s just parroting happy-talk? Can we even tell the difference?

In a euphoric speculative bubble, the answer is “no.” In a speculative bubble, “buy the dip” is all you need to know to win big, and continue winning big. So who cares about rogue waves and rotten hulls?

Read the Whole Article

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